When a foreign think tank tells you what Americans think, ask yourself: which Americans did they ask?
Chatham House—that’s a British foreign policy outfit, for those who don’t spend their weekends reading what London elites think about us—published a piece this week claiming Trump’s popularity is “waning.” They cite Gallup polls showing approval at 36 percent. They call the Trump poll numbers evidence of declining support. Bruce Stokes, their analyst, writes that “all signs are that President Trump’s support is waning.”
Here’s my question: waning among whom?
The Numbers They Don’t Want You To See
Buried in the same Chatham House piece is a number they mention but don’t dwell on: 91 percent of Republicans approve of Trump. Ninety-one percent. That’s not a president losing support. That’s a president whose own people—the ones who actually voted for him—are standing behind him almost unanimously.
But that doesn’t fit the narrative, so they focus on the overall number. They mix in the 6 percent of Democrats who approve, drag down the average, and announce that America has turned on Trump. That’s not analysis. That’s arithmetic designed to reach a predetermined conclusion.
Trump himself said it best on Truth Social: the polls are “rigged” and his real approval is 64 percent. Now, I don’t know where he got that specific number. But I know this: when I talk to people at the hardware store, at the diner, at my neighbor’s backyard cookout, I’m not meeting a lot of the 36 percent. I’m meeting the 91 percent. Maybe Gallup should try polling outside the Beltway sometime.
The “Independent” Problem
The article makes a big deal about independents. Says their support dropped 21 points over the year. Okay. But who are these independents? In my experience, people who call themselves “independent” fall into two categories: Democrats who don’t want to admit it, and people who don’t pay attention until two weeks before an election.
The Trump poll numbers narrative depends on treating these people as the voice of reason. The sensible middle. The adults in the room. But if you’ve been paying attention—really paying attention, not just absorbing whatever the mainstream feeds you—you know the “middle” is just where confused people stand while they figure out which side they’re on.
Chatham House notes that Trump claimed his real approval is 64 percent “without providing evidence.” You know what else doesn’t provide evidence? The assumption that Gallup’s sample represents actual Americans. I’ve never been polled. Have you? Has anyone you know? These organizations call a few thousand people, weight the results according to formulas they invented, and announce they’ve captured the national mood. And we’re supposed to take that more seriously than what we see with our own eyes.
What Real Americans Actually Think
The British think tank is very concerned about Trump’s “future ability to effectively govern.” They think his standing with “the American public” will determine his success. But they’re measuring the wrong public. They’re measuring the people who answer phone calls from strangers asking about politics. They’re measuring the people who live in areas pollsters consider representative. They’re measuring a version of America that exists primarily in spreadsheets.
Out here—in the America where people work jobs and pay taxes and notice when things cost more than they used to—the mood is different. We’re not sitting around worrying about approval ratings. We’re watching what he does. And 91 percent of the people who put him there are still on board.
Chatham House can keep publishing their numbers. I’ll keep trusting what I see. Call it confirmation bias if you want. I call it common sense. And I’m full of it.
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