While you were recovering from New Year’s Eve, adversaries were advancing. The January complacency window is open—and they know it.
It is January 5th. The ball has dropped. The champagne is flat. And somewhere in a hostile foreign capital, a strategic planner is smiling. Because they understand what most Americans refuse to see: the first two weeks of January represent the most dangerous period of the year. I call it the January complacency window, and our enemies are counting on it.
I’ve been tracking this pattern since 2019, when I first noticed that my own alertness dipped between January 2nd and January 14th. If it could happen to me—someone who wakes at 4:30 AM daily and maintains a year-round threat assessment protocol—imagine what’s happening to the average citizen.
The January Complacency Window Explained
The data is clear. Between January 1st and January 14th, Americans experience a 34% decrease in situational awareness. I calculated this myself using a methodology I developed while monitoring neighborhood foot traffic from my home office. The implications are staggering.
My German Shepherd, Patton, sensed it immediately. On January 2nd, he refused to complete our standard perimeter check. He simply sat down at the property line and looked at me. Dogs know. They always know.
I pushed through anyway. Someone has to.
What Our Adversaries Understand
While you were debating whether to take down your Christmas lights, hostile actors were studying our behavioral patterns. They’ve read the same books I have—probably. They understand that Americans are psychologically vulnerable in early January: tired from celebrations, distracted by returns and gym memberships, operating at reduced capacity.
My ex-wife used to say I was “incapable of relaxing.” She meant it as criticism. I heard it as confirmation that I was the only one paying attention.
Closing The Window
This morning, I completed a full equipment check: go-bag updated, protein supply rotated, neighborhood ingress points photographed. My neighbors have started waving less enthusiastically when they see me. Good. Comfort breeds complacency.
I’ve also resumed my practice of calling into local talk radio. The host recognized my voice and said “oh, it’s you again” before I could identify myself. That’s reach. That’s impact.
The January complacency window will close on its own around January 15th. But by then, the damage may be done. I’ll be monitoring the situation from here, where I’ve been since 4:30 this morning, while Patton maintains watch at the sliding glass door.
He hasn’t blinked in six minutes. Neither have I.
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