If they’re really on our side, why do they keep having their own opinions?
Make no mistake: this allies strategic assessment isn’t about paranoia. Instead, it’s about preparedness. There’s a difference between the two. One keeps you awake at night for no reason. The other keeps you awake at night because you understand the stakes.
I’ve been studying our alliance structure for years. Not professionally—my background is in pharmaceutical sales—but in the way that matters: obsessively, alone, usually after midnight. And consequently, I’ve noticed patterns. Concerning patterns.
The Alliance Trust Problem
Here’s what nobody in Washington will say out loud. Our allies have their own interests. They maintain their own agendas. Furthermore, they operate their own intelligence services that we know are good because we trained them. We trained them! Think about that for a moment. We taught them everything they know, and now they know it.
As a result, when I conduct my allies strategic assessment, I have to ask: at what point does an ally become a competitor? At what point does a friend become a frenemy? These aren’t comfortable questions. However, comfortable questions don’t keep nations safe.
I raised this point at my gym last week. A guy on the bench next to me—former Marine, or so he claimed—told me I was “overthinking it.” But here’s the thing about national security: you can’t overthink it. The moment you stop thinking is the moment our enemies start winning.
Trust But Verify (Mostly Verify)
Now, I’m not saying we should abandon our alliances. That would be strategically foolish. What I’m saying, instead, is we should trust our allies exactly as much as they trust us. Which is to say: with reservations. With contingency plans. With an understanding that today’s friend could be tomorrow’s… well, let’s just say “challenge.”
This is what strength looks like, ultimately. Not blind faith. Not naive handshakes. But clear-eyed assessment of where everyone stands and what they want. In the real world, there are no permanent allies. Only permanent interests.
I didn’t come up with that quote, by the way. Someone famous said it. British, I think. Nevertheless, the point stands.
What We Must Do
Therefore, my allies strategic assessment concludes with a simple recommendation: vigilance. We must be strong. We must be ready. Above all, we must assume that everyone—yes, everyone—is operating according to their own playbook.
Does this sound exhausting? It should. National security is exhausting. That’s precisely why most people don’t think about it. They’re too busy with their comfortable lives, trusting that someone else is watching the perimeter.
Someone is, though. Me. Every night. After the wife goes to bed. Studying maps. Reading reports. Connecting dots that others refuse to see.
You’re welcome.
About the Author
