Putin fired his fancy missile because he’s out of options. That’s not escalation. That’s desperation.
A journalist named Andrew Ryvkin wrote a piece in The Atlantic about Russia’s Oreshnik missile strike on Lviv and what it means for the Trump administration. He meant it as a warning. I read it as a victory lap.
Ryvkin summarizes the emerging doctrine perfectly: “ICE for Americans. Delta Force for everyone else.” He thinks this is frightening. I think it belongs on a bumper sticker.
What Strength Actually Looks Like
Let me walk you through what Ryvkin documents, because the facts speak for themselves.
Putin’s hopes for “an agreeable Trump have more or less vanished.” Russia entered 2026 under more sanctions than before Trump’s reelection, with a worse economy, unable to agree to any peace proposals. The Kremlin tried to protect an oil tanker by giving it a Russian flag, issuing diplomatic warnings, even shadowing it with military vessels including a submarine. The U.S. Coast Guard took it anyway. Then seized a second one.
Defense Secretary Hegseth visited shipbuilders and quipped about Venezuela: “Seems those Russian air defenses didn’t quite work so well, did they?” Secretary Rubio told reporters the U.S. has always expected only “rhetorical” support from Moscow for Maduro. Then he wished Foreign Minister Lavrov a merry Christmas.
Russia lost its $34 billion Venezuela foothold. The $3.15 billion in loans may never be repaid. Moscow signed a defense pact with Cuba last spring, but as Ryvkin notes, “Moscow is not really in a position to prevent Washington from raiding Havana.”
The Oreshnik Is Desperation
Ryvkin explains that firing an Oreshnik is logistically complicated—the Strategic Rocket Forces have to do it, and Moscow has to notify Washington in advance to avoid triggering retaliation. Without a nuclear payload, the missile has “limited military value.” Russia has cheaper weapons that do the same damage.
So why fire it? Because it’s one of the last ways for Russia to project power. Putin “has effectively narrowed Russia’s room for maneuver to Ukraine’s borders alone.” He has “no navy capable of defending allied regimes such as Venezuela and Cuba against the United States.”
Ryvkin is worried about what he calls “two aging authoritarians with nuclear stockpiles on a path of mutual escalation.” He thinks this is dangerous. But look at the trajectory he describes. One of those leaders just lost a major ally, watched his tankers get seized, and fired a symbolic missile because he’s out of real options. The other is ordering invasion plans and capturing dictators.
The Doctrine Works
When Medvedev posted about Russia’s “Dead Hand” automatic nuclear retaliation system, Trump responded by positioning two nuclear submarines “in the appropriate regions.” Ryvkin thinks this is reckless. I think Putin got the message.
Fox News asked if Trump would ever order a mission to capture Putin. The president said he didn’t think it would be “necessary” because he’s “always had a great relationship with him.” Ryvkin calls this “deeply insulting to the Russian leader.” Good. Let him be insulted. Let him understand that the relationship is no longer between equals.
ICE for Americans. Delta Force for everyone else. I’ve been waiting my whole life for this doctrine. And it’s working.
About the Author
