This is the thinking that keeps generational wealth out of reach.
A financial analyst named Bill Blain wrote a piece this week about the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and it’s a masterclass in why traditional finance people stay exactly where they are. He’s a bond guy. CEO of something called Windshift Capital. The kind of person who thinks caution is a strategy.
His big insight? “The Market has but one objective—to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants.” That’s his actual investment philosophy. He calls it “Blain’s Market Mantra No 1.” And he wonders why he’s not building real wealth.
Everything He Says Is True And None Of It Matters
Look, I’ll give Blain credit. His analysis isn’t wrong. He notes that SpaceX is expected to IPO somewhere between $800 billion and $1.5 trillion. He points out that Starlink’s “total addressable market of 3 billion people” is probably overstated because autocrats won’t let their populations use it and competition exists. He calculates a more realistic Starlink valuation around $400 billion.
He raises concerns about cheap liquidity vanishing due to inflation or what he calls “Trump’s assault on the Fed’s Independence.” He worries that a wave of AI deals at lofty valuations could trigger “a natural top and sell signal for the market.”
He even notes that Tesla’s lead collapsed while Musk was distracted by other ventures, and suggests SpaceX could face the same fate. “Nothing lasts forever,” he writes. “Other firms will again catch up, compete and surpass SpaceX.”
All of this is reasonable analysis. And all of it is exactly why Blain will watch from the sidelines while others build generational wealth.
The Stag Mentality
Here’s what caught my attention. Blain mentions that 2026 is shaping up to be a “Stagging frenzy”—his term for buyers who get into IPOs and flip quickly for gains. He says it like it’s a warning. I read it as a playbook.
The SpaceX IPO will be the defining financial event of the year. Blain admits this himself. He even suggests it “may be delayed to accelerate and increase the hype.” And his response to this once-in-a-generation opportunity is to cite his mantra about maximum pain?
This is bond mentality. This is why people who manage other people’s money rarely build their own. They’re paid to be cautious. They’re rewarded for not losing. That’s a job. That’s not wealth.
How I’m Positioned
I’ve been preparing for this IPO for months. When SpaceX opens to retail—and it will, Musk understands his base—I’ll be ready to move. Not with some diversified, risk-managed, Blain-approved allocation. With conviction.
Blain ends his piece by comparing moats to archaeology—”digging out all the stuff that made them so ineffective in the long-run.” He thinks this is clever. What it actually reveals is a man who sees opportunity and immediately looks for reasons it won’t work.
Some of us see opportunity and position accordingly. That’s the difference between managing wealth and building it.
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