Global investors are finally doing what I said they would. The timeline has accelerated.
I want to be very clear about something. The sell America trade that financial analysts are now breathlessly discovering? I wrote about it in 2007. I have the newsletters. They are in binders. My wife asked me to move the binders to the garage, which I did, but I know exactly which shelf they are on.
This week, analysts at The Bulwark discussed what they called global investors “quietly dumping U.S. assets.” They noted that the dollar weakened against every major currency last year. They mentioned Danish pension funds, Swedish pension funds, Indian government sales of U.S. treasuries. They even cited BlackRock questioning whether American bonds are still the safest haven.
They described the economy as “kind of sucky.” They used the word “meh.” They suggested it might not be a “hellscape.”
I would respectfully disagree.
The Analysts See Symptoms. I See The Disease.
What the mainstream financial commentators cannot bring themselves to say is what I have been saying for eighteen years: the American economic system is fundamentally unsustainable, and the collapse will be sudden and total. They acknowledge consumer confidence is at a 14-year low. They note the layoffs at Amazon, UPS, Tesla, Nike. They observe that nobody can plan past next week under this administration.
And then they shrug and say it “kind of sucks.”
This is like watching a man fall from a building and observing that he seems to be descending rapidly. The ground is coming. I have been pointing at the ground since 2007. My newsletter subscription numbers suggest approximately 340 people are listening. That number has held steady for eleven years. I choose to see this as a committed core audience.
When BlackRock Questions Treasuries, The Timeline Has Accelerated
The Bulwark analysts mentioned Bill Clinton’s famous observation that he thought he would be the most powerful man in the world, only to discover he worked for the bond market. They invoked James Carville’s line about wanting to be reincarnated as the bond market because it intimidates everybody.
What they did not mention is what I wrote in my December 2007 newsletter: when the bond market turns on America, there will be no warning. There will only be aftermath.
The Danish pension funds are selling. The Swedish pension funds are selling. The Indian government is selling. Our allies are building new trade relationships with China. The EU just signed a deal with India. Kier Starmer is in Beijing. Mark Carney visited China. South Korea is pivoting.
The analysts call this “diversification.” I call it preparation for what comes next.
What You Should Do
Buy gold. I have been saying this since 2007. I said it when gold was $650 an ounce. I said it when gold was $1,900 an ounce. I said it when gold dropped to $1,050 an ounce. I am saying it now. The price is irrelevant. What matters is physical possession of a tangible store of value when the financial system enters its terminal phase.
My wife has asked me to stop mentioning our gold holdings in print. I have compromised by not specifying the amount or location. She is a reasonable woman. We have been married for thirty-four years. She stopped reading my newsletters in 2011, which I consider a healthy boundary.
The sell America trade has begun. I take no pleasure in being right. That is not true. I take considerable pleasure in being right. I have been waiting eighteen years for this moment. The timeline has accelerated. Prepare accordingly.
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