I’ve been saying “buy gold” for eighteen years. It finally surged 70%. My son says that makes me a broken clock.
In January 2025, I made several predictions based on my study of Austrian economics and seventeen years of analyzing Federal Reserve policy. My 2025 economic predictions were partially vindicated. Gold surged over 70%—its best year since 1979. The dollar weakened. And yet I find myself explaining, once again, why none of this counts as being right. Because even when I’m right, apparently, I’m wrong.
Linda says I should stop writing these annual reviews. She says they “make it worse.” I assume she means for The Belden Report’s reputation. Our subscriber count dropped from 2,300 to 1,771 this year. But those who left weren’t serious about protecting their wealth. They wanted entertainment, not truth.
What I Predicted (And What Happened)
In my January newsletter—which I have in front of me, highlighted—I wrote that 2025 would “likely see the beginning of the dollar’s terminal decline.” I predicted gold would reach $2,800 by June. It reached $4,000 in October and is now above $4,500. I was too conservative. I have been telling people to buy gold since 2007, and the one year it rises 70%, I underestimated it. My son called this “fitting.” He said even when I’m right, I’m wrong. I told him I was right about the *direction*. He said “Dad, you’ve been saying ‘buy gold’ for eighteen years. Eventually being right isn’t a prediction, it’s a broken clock.” Then he had to go.
I also predicted the national debt would become “unsustainable.” It is now $36.4 trillion. I did not specify a number at which debt becomes unsustainable, which means I remain technically correct. Those of us who study Austrian economics understand that precision is less important than direction. Although apparently, when the direction is correct, precision suddenly matters again.
Why Being Right Still Feels Like Being Wrong
Gold had its best year since 1979. And yet my subscriber count dropped from 2,300 to 1,771. Linda says this is because I “don’t know how to take yes for an answer.” I’m not sure what she means. I think she means I should be celebrating. But how can I celebrate when I underestimated the very thing I’ve been right about for eighteen years?
The Fed is still manipulating markets. The debt is still unsustainable. The fact that gold rose 70% doesn’t mean I was vindicated—it means I should have said $5,000. I could have said $5,000. I was being conservative. Now I look like a moderate. I have never been a moderate about anything.
My 2026 Predictions
Will gold reach $5,000 in 2026? I believe so. I’m not being conservative this time. My clients at Belden Sound Money Advisors—I have nine active clients, down from fourteen—have been well-served by my guidance, even if their portfolios underperformed the gold price because I told them to buy at various points over the past decade. Several have expressed concerns. I remind them that if they had listened to me in 2007, they would be up significantly. Most of them did not know me in 2007.
Linda says I should be happy. Gold had its best year since 1979. I’ve been saying this would happen. She doesn’t understand that being right in the wrong way is worse than being wrong. I predicted $2,800. I could have said $5,000. I could have been a visionary. Instead, I’m a broken clock that happened to point at the right hour while underestimating the minutes.
My son hasn’t called back. He’s busy. He works at a bank now, which I’ve mentioned. I have been right about gold for eighteen years. It finally proved it. And somehow I’m still explaining myself.
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